Mark Elliott's Response to Barrett and Johnson on Church Statistics

Unfortunately, Barrett's and Johnson's argument that "Church Leaders Know Their Flocks Best," is not necessarily the case in post-Soviet societies, at least in terms of numbers.  The Russian Orthodox Church reportedly is the largest single church in the World Council of Churches, based on figures submitted to the WCC by the Moscow Patriarchate.  However, the statistics that the WCC receives from the Patriarchate--what one Orthodox priest calls "an educated guess"--have to be estimates because individual Russian Orthodox parishes do not typically keep rosters of members' names nor membership totals.  (Fr. Viktor Potapov to author, 19/10/01; Fr. Georgi Edelstein to author, 22/10/01; Fr. Michael Roshak to author, 22/10/01; Dr. Dimitri Sidorov to author, 24/10/01; Dr. Nathaniel Davis to author, 31/10/01; Professor Dimitryi Pospielovsky to author, 1/11/01.)

In August 2001 the Russian Public Opinion and Market Research (ROMIR-Gallup International) conducted a survey of 2000 Russians.  Of those polled, 73.6 percent identified themselves as Orthodox.  However, among respondents who declared their allegiance to Russian Orthodoxy, only 51.3 percent believed in the existence of God ("What Residents of Russia Believe," Mir religii, 7 September 2001, Religion in Russia website, www.stetson.edu/~psteeves).  Barrett and Johnson are correct to note the enumeration of baptized members as the only practicable basis for quantitative comparisons of churches and denominations.  However, the exercise is quite problematic in post-Soviet settings because, as noted above, membership figures are far from firm and even self-identification can be questionable, as in the case of "Russian Orthodox" who do not believe in God.

Mark Elliott, "Mark Elliott's Response to Barrett and Johnson on Church Statistics," East-West Church & Ministry Report 9 (Fall 2001), 12.